Silver has managed to rally through the $19.50 mark this week, threatening to break above $19.65 resistance. The metal might be preparing for a sharp bearish reversal from current price ($19.07), and push lower below $11.00, in the next few months.
Let us have a look at the larger degree wave structure, which is not seen here. To begin with, Silver had dropped from sun $50.00 levels through below $14.00 levels in December 2015 in 5 waves, making it an impulse wave.
Normally, after an impulse is complete, we can expect a corrective wave in the opposite direction. Since sub $14.00 levels, Silver might have produced/unfolded into a triangle consolidation. A triangle unfolds into 5 waves, a-b-c-d-e and the recent rally from $11.50 through $19.50 could be the last wave within the triangle termination.
If the above larger degree wave counts are correct, Silver might have produced Waves (A) and (B) of the corrective drop towards $14.00 and $19.50 respectively. Going further, Silver should stay below $19.65 and reverse sharply lower towards $11.00 mark.
Alternately, a break above $19.65 would confirm that Silver might be unfolding into further complex corrective structure. Traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions with protective stops above $19.65 levels and projected targets below $11.00, going further.
Technical Analysis Team
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