EURUSD might have carved a potential top around 1.1916, or it could be in process to carve. Either way, bears are looking poised to regain control going forward. The interim support around 1.1700 levels remains key to confirm and trigger a down turn.
EURUSD had bottomed around 1.0636 mark in March 2020. Since then, bulls have remained in control and managed to carve a series of higher highs and higher lows through 1.1915. Looking into the wave structure, a 5 wave rally looks complete.
The above impulse wave should ideally be followed by a corrective drop towards 1.1300/1.1200 levels, going forward. Another possibility remains for a bearish reversal since the rally has reached the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of earlier drop between 1.2555 and 1.0636 respectively.
The above drop could be the primary drop, which is followed by a corrective rally through 1.1915 levels. This is looking as a classic Elliott Wave 5-3 structure, which should be followed by another 5 waves lower.
It remains to be seen whether EURUSD reverses from current levels or after printing yet another high above 1.1915 levels. Looking at the lower degree wave structure, it might be unfolding as a potential triangle, which could be followed by a thrust rally.
On the flip side, a drop below 1.1700 from here would confirm a top is in place around 1.1915 levels and that EURUSD would be heading lower, going forward. Traders might prepare to sell on rallies or a break below 1.1700.
Technical Analysis Team
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